by: WOOD TV8/Nexstar Media Wire
(WOOD TV8/NEXSTAR) – Most political observers say it's unlikely that any lead in the 2020 presidential race would feel safe. Not after 2016, when surprise victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin catapulted candidate Donald Trump into the White House.
Expectations or fears of a repeat upset (depending on which side of the political aisle you fall on) may be understandable, but are they realistic? With most of the final numbers in from major polling, firms, one can reasonably compare final 2016 numbers to today’s polling averages.
Observers of the race know that since early summer, polls have shown Biden with a stable lead – seven to nine points nationally – and while the gap has narrowed to the low end of that range recently, the former vice president’s popular vote lead is more than double that of what former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held in November of 2016. Clinton had a 3.2 percent lead and ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1 percent, according toReal Clear Politics. RCP found the Biden had a 6.8 percent lead on the eve of the election.
Candidate Joe Biden also has 48.8 percent support among declared voters on election eve, that’s two full percentage points ahead of Clinton’s final support. Analysts say those numbers suggest a 2016 level misfire would not be enough for Trump to win.
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