GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Snowflakes have started to spill into West Michigan, making everyone wonder just how bad this winter will be.
Our expert forecasters with Storm Team 8 have dug through the data to give you the most likely weather scenario for West Michigan in 2017-2018.
THE WINTER SEASON WILL BE ACTIVE
One of the best ways to determine what an upcoming winter will be like is to look at past seasons with similar weather patterns. Years that match the coming one are called analog years.
This winter, there is a very good chance that a weak to moderate La Nina will form in the Pacific Ocean. In years past, a weak La Nina there will lead to an active storm track here in Michigan. Usually with a weak La Nina, we see the center part of snowstorms zoom across the Ohio River Valley. This usually puts Michigan in the snow zone, or at least gives us chilly enough air that lake-effect snow will form.
Lake Michigan is once again warmer than usual. This may kick start our lake-effect snow at the start of the season before wind helps to mix that warm water from the surface.
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