MIRS- Michigan News Source poll shows dead heat in presidential race

LANSING, Mich. -- Mitchell Research has released the results of a presidential survey in Michigan that it conducted on behalf of MIRS and Michigan News Source

It says a two-way trial ballot test shows former President Donald Trump holds a one-percent lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, 49 percent to 48 percent. That is a statistical dead heat.

In an eight-way trial ballot test, Harris and Trump are tied at 47 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting 2 percent of the tally, Green Party candidate Jill Stein with one percent, and Libertarian Chase Oliver with one percent. They were the only candidates to get any support.

Here is more data from the MIRS-Mi News Source press release:

Trump and Harris continue to be in a statistical dead heat as they were in our September 11 poll and our June 3 poll (with Biden). Although most people look at the two-way ballot, the fact is that voters will be looking at the eight choices because that’s what is on the ballot.

That Trump and Harris continue to be statistically tied is further evidence of how tight this race ultimately is going to be,” Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

Two-Way Race by Gender

• Trump leads with men (52% - 44%) while Harris leads with women (51% - 47%).

• For decades, the gender gap has favored women rather than men, this year we are seeing a strong gender gap with both men and women. But it is clear that in this poll more men are supporting Trump than women are supporting Harris.

Two-Way Race by Age

• Harris leads with 18–29-year-olds (50% - 42%) and with 30–44-year-olds (54% - 42%).

• However, Trump leads with 45–64-year-olds (52% - 44%) as well as with 65+ year olds (54% - 46%).

Two-Way Race by Race

• Among white voters, Trump leads 53% to 43%.

• Among African American voters, Harris leads 79% to 20%.

• Among voters of other ethnicities, Trump leads 57% to 41%.

Two-Way Race by Education

• Among those with some college education or trade school, Trump leads 52% to 44%.

• Among college graduates, Trump leads 52% to 46%. • Among those with no college education, Trump leads 74% to 25%

• Finally, among those with a master’s degree or greater, Harris leads 70% to 27%.

• The huge margins by which Trump leads with those that have never been to college is in stark contrast to the lead Harris has with the most educated group, those with a master’s degree plus.

On the 8-Way Race

In the 8-way race cross tabs are very consistent with the 2-way race. Although the percentages might be slightly different, the difference between Harris’ and Trump’s percentages are very consistent.

The primary difference is that among Independents, Trump leads by fifteen percent (52%-37%) in the 2-way question, but his lead narrows to seven percent among Independents (44%-37%). Additionally, 11% were undecided. In the 8-way contest the reason for Trump’s loss of support is some of the Independents going towards other candidates. Lead by R.F.K. Jr. (8%), Chase Oliver (3%), Jill Stein (3%), Jospeh Kishore (1%), Cornell West (1%) and the undecided voters drop to 4%.

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Generic Congressional Ballot Question

In the Generic Congressional House ballot question, we tested whether or not voters supported a Republican or a Democrat without using a specific candidates name. In this survey, the Generic ballot question is identical to what it was on September 11 with voters supporting the Republicans by one percent more (47% - 46%) than the Democrats.

Generic Congressional Ballot Question by Gender

• We see the same type of gender gap in this question that we saw in the 2-way and the 8-way presidential ballot test.

• The Democrat leads with women (49% - 43%) while the Republican leads with men (52% - 41%).

Generic Congressional Ballot Question by Age

• The Democrat leads with 18-29 years olds (56% - 40%) and with 30–44-year-olds (54% - 40%).

• However, the Republican leads with 45–64-year-olds (52% - 41%) as well as with 65+ year olds (47% - 41%)

• In this poll, younger voters (under 45) are supporting Democrats while Republicans are gaining support from voters 45+.

Generic Congressional Ballot Question by Race

• Among white voters, the Republican leads 50% to 42%.

• Among African American voters, the Democrat leads 75% to 19%.

• Among voters of other ethnicities, the Republican leads 55% to 35%. Generic Congressional Ballot Question by Education

• Among those with some college education or trade school, the Republican leads 49% to 42%.

• Among college graduates, the Republican leads 51% to 43%.

• Among those with no college education, the Republican leads 65% to 25%

• Finally, among those with a master’s degree or greater, the Democrat leads 68% to 24%.

• The Generic House Republican does well with voters who have not been to college (65% - 25%) but that is not nearly as good as the 70%+ margin that Trump led by. Conversely again, the Generic House Democrat is doing well but still not into the 70’s as Trump was able to do.

US Senate Race

In the US Senate race, Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers 49%-44%. In our last poll Slotkin had solidified Democrat support getting 95% off that vote while Rogers was winning only 87% of GOP voters. Rogers led 45%-42% with Independents.

In the latest poll Rogers increased support among Republicans to 89% but lost support among Independents and now trails by three percent (43% - 40%). Slotkin’s support among Democrats has remained at 95%.

“Throughout this race Slotkin has enjoyed a huge financial advantage over Rogers, essentially, she raised $23.5 million compared to Rogers’ $5.5 million. When you take into consideration GOP candidate Sandy Pensler spent $4 million in negative ads against Rogers in the Republican Primary that means Slotkin has a 5:1 advantage over Rogers. “However, it was announced this week that two outside PAC’s are going to spend a combined $30 million in the last 5 weeks on behalf of Rogers. That amount of money is a game changer not only for Rogers but for down ballot candidates who have seen Democrats outspend them dramatically in this campaign,” Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

GOP Primary

Congressman John James (28%) and Republican nominee Tudor Dixon (27%) are in a statistical tie for first place in a trial ballot test for the 2026 Republican Party Primary election for Governor. James is very strong in the Detroit Metropolitan area where his campaign commercials are running on television as he fights a spirited campaign against long time Macomb County Politician Carl Marlinga. The only other candidate with any support is 2022 candidate Kevin Rinke (3%). Perry Johnson, former gubernatorial candidate and former presidential candidate, and former Michigan Speaker of the House, Tom Leonard, registered 0% in the survey. “2022 GOP nominee Tudor Dixon remains remarkably popular running against an equally popular John James. Millions of dollars are being spent by James and outside groups on his 2024 campaign for re-election to Congress. This obviously is one of the reasons he is so popular. Therefore, the fact that Tudor Dixon is tied with him shows that she is going to be a major player in the 2026 gubernatorial election, if she chooses to run,” Mitchell said.

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